It outlines the main findings in the 2016 mid-year estimates of population and migration for Conwy County Borough, and looks at the 2014-based population projections which were produced by Welsh Government.
This is the latest monitor in a series which is produced on an annual basis by the Corporate Research and Information Unit. Appendices showing population at ward (electoral division), community council level, strategic sub area, electoral constituency and region/country are available at the end of the bulletin.
Download the population profile here (PDF, 1.94Mb)
- The size of the resident population in Conwy County Borough at 30 June 2017 was estimated to be 116,850 people. Between mid-2016 and mid-2017 the total number of people living in the County Borough is estimated to have increased by about 50 or 0.04%.
- Since 2007 the population of Conwy County Borough has increased by 3,100, which is 2.7% – an average of about 0.3% per year, though rates of change have not been evenly spread across the period. In the same period the population of Wales increased by 4.0% and the population of the UK grew by 7.7%.
- Between mid-2016 and mid-2017 the change in population in Conwy County Borough was a result of:
- negative natural change of -500 people (1,050 births and 1,550 deaths);
- net migration gain of 550 people (about 5,050 people came to Conwy County Borough to live and about 4,500 people left).
- Fertility rates and death rates are both falling, in general.
- However, without migration, the population of Conwy County Borough would decrease as there are more deaths than births in the area every year.
- Over a ten year period, there is average net out-migration of about -300 in the 15-29 age group every year.
- There is average net in-migration of about +350 in the 50-64 age group every year.
- The median age of Conwy County Borough’s population is 49.1 years (Wales = 42.5; UK = 40.1). The median age has increased from 45.5 to 49.1 years over the last decade.
- Conwy County Borough’s 27.2% of the population aged 65 and over compares to 20.6% in Wales as a whole and 18.2% across the UK.
- By 2037 it is predicted that:
- if the 5 year migration trend continues Conwy County Borough will have a population of 118,400 – an increase of 1,550 (1.3%) from 2017 mid-year estimate levels.
- if the 10 year migration trend continues Conwy County Borough will have a population of 118,550 – an increase of 1,700 (1.7%).
- net increases in the population total will come from in-migration, as natural change alone (births and deaths) would lead to a fall in total.
- population growth will be in the 65+ age group. The number of people of working age and the population aged under 16 will decline.
- Population density is low, at 1.0 persons per hectare across the County Borough as a whole, but rises to over 30 persons per hectare in some urban areas on the coast.
- The greatest concentrations of people aged 65 and over are in the coastal settlements of Abergele, Towyn, Rhos on Sea, Llandudno (Craig-y-Don, Gogarth and Penrhyn wards), Deganwy and Dwygyfylchi. Craig-y-Don electoral division has the highest proportion of people aged over 65 in its population (39.6%).
- By far the youngest age profile in the County Borough is to be found in the Llysfaen electoral division / community council area, with only 14.0% of the population aged 65+, and 23.2% aged under 16.
Next update - August 2019