It outlines the main findings in the 2020 mid-year estimates of population and migration for Conwy County Borough, and looks at the 2018-based population projections which were produced by Welsh Government.
This is the latest monitor in a series which is produced on an annual basis by the Corporate Research and Information Unit. Appendices showing population at ward (electoral division), community council level, strategic sub area, electoral constituency and region/country are available at the end of the bulletin.
Download the population profile here (PDF)
Much of the data in this bulletin is for the period before the onset of the Covid 19 pandemic and therefore does not take full account of its impact. Some data for the second half of 2020 will not be available until mid-2022 at the earliest.
- The size of the resident population in Conwy County Borough at 30 June 2020 was estimated to be 118,200 people. Between mid-2019 and mid-2020 the total number of people living in the County Borough is estimated to have increased by about 800 or 0.8%.
- Since 2010 the population of Conwy County Borough has increased by 3,500, which is 3.1% – an average of about 0.3% per year, though rates of change have not been evenly spread across the period. In the same period the population of Wales increased by 3.9% and the population of the UK grew by 6.9%.
- Between mid-2019 and mid-2020 the change in population in Conwy County Borough was a result of:
- negative natural change of -600 people (1,000 births and 1,600 deaths);
- net migration gain of 1,550 people (about 5,050 people came to Conwy County Borough to live and about 3,500 people left).
- Fertility rates and death rates are both falling, in general.
- However, without migration, the population of Conwy County Borough would decrease as there are more deaths than births in the area every year.
- Over a ten year period, there is average net out-migration of about -150 in the 15-29 age group every year.
- There is average net in-migration of about +400 in the 50-64 age group every year.
- The median age of Conwy County Borough’s population is 50.0 years (Wales = 42.4; UK = 40.4). The median age has increased from 46.6 to 50.0 years over the last decade.
- Conwy County Borough’s 27.9% of the population aged 65 and over compares to 21.1% in Wales as a whole and 18.6% across the UK.
- By 2040 it is predicted that:
- If the central growth trend continues Conwy County Borough will have a population of 123,000 – an increase of 4,800 (4.1%) from 2020 mid-year estimate levels.
- If the low growth variant trend continues Conwy County Borough will have a population of 117,750 – a decrease of -450 (-0.4%).
- If the high growth variant trend continues Conwy County Borough will have a population of 126,900 – an increase of 8,700 (7.4%).
- Net increases in the population total will come from in-migration, as natural change alone (births and deaths) would lead to a fall in total.
- Population growth will be in the 65+ age group. The number of people of working age and the population aged under 16 will decline.
- Population density is low, at 1.0 persons per hectare across the County Borough as a whole, but rises to over 30 persons per hectare in some urban areas on the coast.
- The greatest concentrations of people aged 65 and over are in the coastal settlements of Abergele, Towyn, Llanddulas, Rhos on Sea, Llandudno (Craig-y-Don, Gogarth and Penrhyn wards) and Deganwy. Craig-y-Don electoral division has the highest proportion of people aged over 65 in its population (39.2%).
- By far the youngest age profile in the County Borough is to be found in the Llysfaen electoral division / community council area, with only 14.5% of the population aged 65+, and 22.6% aged under 16.
Next update - Autumn 2022